• Spanish 10 year bonds decline, yield rises 5 bps to 5.27%

    Updated: 2013-01-31 07:41:03
    Italian 10 year bonds decline, yield rises 4 bps to 4.35%.  

  • Labor unions ratchet up pressure on Greek government

    Updated: 2013-01-31 06:24:34
    Oh dear

  • Italy risks political crisis as MPS bank scandal turns ‘explosive’

    Updated: 2013-01-31 06:06:21
    Love him or loathe him, latest from AEP at The Telegraph.

  • Moody’s says a Greek default has not yet been averted

    Updated: 2013-01-31 05:37:10
    The rating agency sees Greece’s economy contracting around 5% in 2013, above government expectations of 4.5%, and sees the recession running into 2014 In its analysis on Greece issued on Wednesday, Moody’s argues that the risks that could sink the country’s economy and therefore its credit rating are still existent. These include the risks in [...]

  • Children of Diabaly: witnesses to the Malian war – in pictures

    Updated: 2013-01-30 23:23:51
    Powerful portraits of the children who live and play in the streets of the rice-growing town of Diabaly

  • Spain's economy shrinks again and remains deep in recession

    Updated: 2013-01-30 23:02:24
    Turn autoplay off Turn autoplay on Please activate cookies in order to turn autoplay off Jump to content s Jump to site navigation 0 Jump to search 4 Terms and conditions 8 Edition : UK US Sign in Mobile Your profile Your details Your comments Your clippings Your lists Sign out Mobile About us About us Contact us Press office Guardian Print Centre Guardian readers' editor Observer readers' editor Terms of service Privacy policy Advertising guide Digital archive Digital edition Guardian Weekly Buy Guardian and Observer photos Today's paper The Guardian G2 features Comment and debate Editorials , letters and corrections Obituaries Other lives Sport Subscribe Subscribe Subscribe to the Guardian iPhone app iPad edition Kindle Extra Guardian Weekly Digital edition All our services The Guardian

  • US recovery stalls after first quarter of negative growth in three years

    Updated: 2013-01-30 22:35:00
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  • Plastic surgery on the rise – with Botox and breast implants most popular

    Updated: 2013-01-30 22:13:07
    Turn autoplay off Turn autoplay on Please activate cookies in order to turn autoplay off Jump to content s Jump to comments c Jump to site navigation 0 Jump to search 4 Terms and conditions 8 Edition : UK US Sign in Mobile Your profile Your details Your comments Your clippings Your lists Sign out Mobile About us About us Contact us Press office Guardian Print Centre Guardian readers' editor Observer readers' editor Terms of service Privacy policy Advertising guide Digital archive Digital edition Guardian Weekly Buy Guardian and Observer photos Today's paper The Guardian G2 features Comment and debate Editorials , letters and corrections Obituaries Other lives Sport Subscribe Subscribe Subscribe to the Guardian iPhone app iPad edition Kindle Extra Guardian Weekly Digital edition All our

  • A lighter look

    Updated: 2013-01-30 20:22:03
    A sideways glance, or two, at some of the week's more entertaining pictures

  • Fourth Quarter GDP: It’s Just a Number

    Updated: 2013-01-30 19:35:16
      Okay, so the negative 0.1 percent real GDP number surprised me, even though I was expecting weakness. After arguing that recent GDP numbers were worse than the headline, primarily because of inventory accumulation, I’m happy to report the opposite this time around. Without inventory runoff, the number would have been up 1.1 percent, still [...]

  • GDP falling again

    Updated: 2013-01-30 18:14:58
    : Econbrowser Analysis of current economic conditions and policy Currency Wars in the Era of Unconventional Monetary Policies Main January 30, 2013 GDP falling again The BEA released today its estimate of 2012 fourth-quarter real GDP which declined slightly from the third quarter . How scary is that The biggest drags came from a drawdown in inventories and decline in government spending . The former could reflect business concerns about the future , though the preliminary inventory estimates often see substantial revision . And the drop in defense spending relative to Q3 was in part an echo effect of the temporary surge in Q3 spending that came in prior to uncertainties about fiscal cliff negotiations . Taking these two factors out , real private demand grew at a 2.5 annual rate during the

  • "Fiscal Multipliers: Post-Crisis Controversies and their Implications" by Iyanatul Islam

    Updated: 2013-01-29 08:59:04
    There has been a surge of scholarly work on estimating fiscal multipliers and assessing their implications in the wake of the global financial and economic crises of 2007-2009. A large number of countries enacted fiscal stimulus packages in response to the twin crises, but an evaluation of their efficacy remains mired in controversy. Such controversy [...]

  • Currency Wars in the Era of Unconventional Monetary Policies

    Updated: 2013-01-29 05:30:25
    : Econbrowser Analysis of current economic conditions and policy Guest Contribution : Monetary Alchemy , Fiscal Science Main January 28, 2013 Currency Wars in the Era of Unconventional Monetary Policies Interpreting Monetary Policy’s Impact on Exchange Rates and Economic Activity Over a week ago , Bundesbank President Jen Weidmann warned against the politicization of Japanese monetary policy , as the BoJ was pressured for more expansionary policy . 1 Nouriel Roubini warned that a currency war could be self-defeating as each country’s laxer monetary policy merely resulted in higher commodity prices . 2 I have been wondering exactly how expansionary monetary policy can influence exchange rates in an era of unconventional monetary policy . And even if it can’t affect exchange rates , is that

  • The World Bank and IMF’s Repeatedly Over-Optimistic Economic Growth Projections for Haiti

    Updated: 2013-01-28 19:50:06
    About Us Press Center Publications Issues Economists Research Tools Events Publications Op-Eds Columns Data Bytes Blogs Graphic Economics Briefings Testimony Scorecard Series Books Films En Español Other Languages Multimedia En Español Other Languages Home Publications Blogs Haiti : Relief and Reconstruction Watch The World Bank and IMF’s Repeatedly Over-Optimistic Economic Growth Projections for Haiti The World Bank and IMF’s Repeatedly Over-Optimistic Economic Growth Projections for Haiti Monday , 28 January 2013 14:50 CEPR’s Arthur Phillips and Stephan Lefebvre have written a nice post analyzing the World Bank and IMF’s repeatedly over-optimistic economic growth projections for Haiti over at our sister-blog , The Americas Blog They note that the latest projections of 6 percent or higher

  • Bears Have Support Close By

    Updated: 2013-01-28 17:43:39
    The odds of a stock market reversal remain elevated. Similar markets have produced results with a bearish slant historically. Video contains traditional, intermarket, and DeMark analysis. After you click play, use the button in the lower-right corner of the video player to view in full-screen mode. Hit Esc to exit full-screen mode.

  • Guest Contribution: "Monetary Alchemy, Fiscal Science"

    Updated: 2013-01-26 17:00:31
    : : , Econbrowser Analysis of current economic conditions and policy Dispatches XXIV : Please Proceed Governor Walker Main January 26, 2013 Guest Contribution : Monetary Alchemy , Fiscal Science Today , we're very fortunate to have as a guest contributor Jeffrey Frankel Harpel Professor at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government , and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers . His weblog can be found here The year 2013 marks the 100th anniversaries of two separate major institutional innovations in American economic policy : the Constitutional Amendment enacting the federal income tax , ratified in February 3, 1913, and the law establishing the Federal Reserve , passed in December 1913. It took some time before the two new institutions became associated with the

  • Most Recent Comments & Charts Via Twitter

    Updated: 2013-01-26 06:01:03
    You can access them here (@CiovaccoCapital). You do not need to know anything about Twitter to view our comments or use the links to view charts.

  • The Steeper The Slope…The Higher The Risk

    Updated: 2013-01-26 02:21:37
    As markets begin to advance in a near-vertical manner, it becomes more and more difficult to manage risk. Charts that “go straight up” can also “come straight down”. The bulls are still in control, but when they finally lose control, gains in this type of environment can evaporate quickly. Stocks may well advance further, [...]

  • Prisoner of the Bureaucracy

    Updated: 2013-01-25 22:46:00
    , . Sign in Join Home Investor Blogs Global Emerging Markets Stock Research Multimedia FREE Special Offers Thoughts From The Frontline Prisoner of the Bureaucracy Prisoner of the Bureaucracy Thoughts From The Frontline Home About Contact Blog Subscription Form Email Notifications Go Syndication RSS for Posts Atom RSS for Comments Have You Seen This Frontline Thoughts Audio Don't have time to read the weekly newsletter The audio version of my Frontline Thoughts are now available via Podcast on InvestorsInsight.com . nbsp Consume the feed here Recent Posts Prisoner of the Bureaucracy Forecast 2013 : Unsustainability and Transition Somewhere Over the Rainbow Looking on the Bright Side Central Bank Insurance Tags China Consumer Spending Credit Crisis Crisis Debt Deficit Deflation Economic

  • The Wages of Austerity, Yet Again: “Britain's economy flirts with "triple dip" recession”

    Updated: 2013-01-25 18:15:18
    : , : Econbrowser Analysis of current economic conditions and policy Links for 2013-01-23 Main Dispatches XXIV : Please Proceed Governor January 25, 2013 The Wages of Austerity , Yet Again : Britain's economy flirts with triple dip recession” From Reuters The country's gross domestic product fell 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter , the Office for National Statistics said on Friday , sharper than a 0.1 percent decline forecast by analysts . The news is a blow for Britain's Conservative-led government , which a day earlier defended its austerity program against criticism from the International Monetary Fund . It needs solid growth to meet its budget targets , keep a triple-A debt rating and bolster its chances of winning a 2015 election . Osborne's coalition partner , Liberal Democrat leader

  • "Ben vs. Mario: From Unconventional Monetary Policies to a Conditional Unemployment Target for the ECB!" by Johannes Schweighofer

    Updated: 2013-01-25 09:08:09
    As a kind of Christmas present, the FED took a decisive step forward in its FOMC-decisions from December 12, 2012: Probably until 2015, the US unemployment rate of 6.5% will serve as the main monetary target, given price stability. This is a remarkable new development towards a more nuanced role of inflation targeting in monetary [...]

  • Nouriel at Davos: Global Tail Risks Remain

    Updated: 2013-01-24 18:14:59
    Speaking with CNN’s Poppy Harlow at Davos, RGE Chairman Nouriel Roubini reiterated the biggest outlying risks to the global economy: U.S. fiscal woes, the eurozone sovereign debt crisis, a potential China hard landing, and geopolitical risk in the Middle East. Nouriel argued that the worst scenario need to materialize for a meaningful impact on global [...]

  • Odds of Stock Pullback Increasing

    Updated: 2013-01-24 17:08:10
    With the S&P 500 up seven points on Thursday, numerous signs are emerging that point to increasing odds of some corrective action in stocks: Short-term charts are overbought. The VIX is attracting some interest. All four CCM Market Models have hit “Tired Bull” levels. Utilities and healthcare are attracting interest. Since the November low, the S&P 500 has tacked [...]

  • Most Recent Comments & Charts Via Twitter

    Updated: 2013-01-23 14:43:00
    You can access them here (@CiovaccoCapital). You do not need to know anything about Twitter to view our comments or use the links to view charts.

  • The Macroeconomic Task Ahead

    Updated: 2013-01-23 00:00:16
    : Econbrowser Analysis of current economic conditions and policy A long-run perspective on the U.S . deficit and debt Main January 22, 2013 The Macroeconomic Task Ahead And why counter cyclical macro policy is still needed pro Summers contra Barro As we contemplate the future of macroeconomic policymaking or not it’s important to recall the stakes . We have avoided the disastrous outcome that would arisen had the plan for further massive tax cuts aimed a high income households and extensive spending cuts been implemented however , output remains far below full employment levels . Since 2008Q1 through 2012Q3, the cumulative output loss has totaled 3.75 trillion Ch.05$ Figure : 1 GDP black WSJ survey forecast GDP red and potential GDP gray in bn . Ch05$ , SAAR . Source : BEA , 2012Q3 3rd

  • "Why David Cameron is wrong on Europe" by Ed Miliband

    Updated: 2013-01-22 19:55:03
    Tomorrow’s speech by David Cameron will define him as a weak Prime Minister, being driven by his party, not by the national economic interest. In October 2011, he opposed committing to an in/out referendum because of the uncertainty it would create for the country. The only thing that has changed since then is he has [...]

  • "Britain, Europe and Trade" by Henning Meyer

    Updated: 2013-01-22 10:00:09
    So, tomorrow we will finally hear David Cameron’s big speech on Britain’s future in the European Union. So much has already been trailed and leaked that it will be difficult for Cameron to come up with something substantially new, but rumour has it that he is at least trying. In the meantime there is an [...]

  • Still Bullish, But Vulnerable to Bad News

    Updated: 2013-01-20 18:35:59
    After you click play, use the button in the lower-right corner of the video player to view in full-screen mode. Hit Esc to exit full-screen mode.

  • Video Coming - Charts SAT on Twitter - GO FALCONS

    Updated: 2013-01-19 17:41:56
    Markets looked vulnerable during Friday’s session. The bears had a crack in the door, but they did not walk through it - impressive close for bulls. More comments and charts on Twitter (@CiovaccoCapital) - you do not need to be “on” Twitter, like Twitter, or know anything about Twitter to read posts and [...]

  • Most Recent Comments & Charts Via Twitter

    Updated: 2013-01-18 18:15:04
    You can access them here (@CiovaccoCapital). You do not need to know anything about Twitter to view our comments or use the links to view charts.

  • "Greece is like Germany’s Weimar Republic" by Fabian Lindner

    Updated: 2013-01-18 13:29:49
    Recently I attended a German economic conference where the Euro crisis was hotly debated. What really shocked me was that economists almost unanimously agreed that the crisis countries’ recessions are necessary. These economists argued that the ensuing social hardship may be deplorable but necessary to throw unproductive firms out of the market and then allow [...]

  • "Is the euro crisis over?" by David Lizoain

    Updated: 2013-01-18 00:00:20
    In recent days, senior European leaders have insisted that the worst of the crisis is now over. But this is nothing new. Here’s a brief chronology of statements to this effect: 10/12/2009 – Brian Lenihan, Irish Minister of Finance: “Our plan is working. We have turned the corner.” 09/07/2010 – Jürgen Stark, ECB Chief Economist: [...]

  • Some Short-Term Concerns Remain For Stocks

    Updated: 2013-01-17 21:57:57
    The VIX is telling us to keep an open mind about a reversal in stocks. The ratio below has not cleared resistance yet. We will enter Friday’s session ready to book profits if conditions warrant. The ratio below is attempting to break out in a bullish manner for stocks relative to bonds, but the [...]

  • Most Recent Comments & Charts Via Twitter

    Updated: 2013-01-17 17:10:53
    You can access them here (@CiovaccoCapital). You do not need to know anything about Twitter to view our comments or use the links to view charts.

  • The Debt Ceiling Debate: My Two Cents Worth

    Updated: 2013-01-17 01:24:35
    It would be nice if the proponents of reducing the deficits and the debt could achieve those essential goals by threatening to block an increase in the debt ceiling. But they can’t. Trying to do so will not only fail, but it will hurt their worthy causes, present and future. In the first place, the [...]

  • Is Paul Krugman’s Liquidity Trap Really an Inequality Trap?

    Updated: 2013-01-16 04:30:21
    As I watched Paul Krugman Sunday night on Bill Moyers, I felt a familiar sense of despair. Krugman cares deeply about unemployment and inequality, as did John Maynard Keynes before him. Yet like Keynes, Krugman seems caught in the inequality-free … Continue reading →

  • Aaron Swartz, R.I.P.

    Updated: 2013-01-15 22:42:02
    I was sad to hear about the suicide of Aaron Swartz, the remarkable guy who developed the online syndication/feed  format RSS, helped found the social news aggregation site Reddit, was involved in Internet activism and other political activism, and did … Continue reading →

  • Great Moments in Policy Analysis: Heritage on the Debt Ceiling

    Updated: 2013-01-15 01:40:56
    : : Econbrowser Analysis of current economic conditions and policy How to Induce Explosive Debt Dynamics Main January 14, 2013 Great Moments in Policy Analysis : Heritage on the Debt Ceiling From the Heritage Foundation : today Very simply , reaching the debt limit means spending is limited by revenue arriving at the Treasury and is guided by prioritization among the government’s obligations . How the government would decide to meet these obligations under the circumstances is a matter of some conjecture . Certainly , vast inflows of federal tax receipts—inflows that far exceed amounts needed to pay monthly interest costs on debt—would continue . Thus , the government would never be forced to default on its debt because of a lack of income . emphasis added MDC As the Bipartisan Policy

  • How to Induce Explosive Debt Dynamics

    Updated: 2013-01-14 19:30:20
    : Econbrowser Analysis of current economic conditions and policy The near-term U.S . fiscal situation Main Great Moments in Policy Analysis : Heritage on the Debt Ceiling January 14, 2013 How to Induce Explosive Debt Dynamics The debt ceiling and implications : of We Republicans need to be willing to tolerate a temporary , partial government shutdown . and more recently I think it is possible that we would shut down the government to make sure President Obama understands that we’re serious . It is one of the oddities of current discourse in macroeconomic policy that there are concerns about the short term sustainability of the Federal government’s abilities to finance debt , despite the fact that the on the run ten year TIPS maturing 1 15 2022 is 0.760 1 11 13 I do believe there is reason

  • The Year Ahead in the Eurozone: Lower Risks, Same Problems

    Updated: 2013-01-14 17:35:41
    Financial conditions in the eurozone have significantly improved since the summer, when eurozone risks peaked because of German policymakers’ open consideration of a Greek exit, and the sovereign spreads of Italy and Spain reached new heights. The day before European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s famous speech in London in which he announced that the [...]

  • Elena Panaritis’ power point presentation at the Sustainable, Responsible, Impact Investing Conference, October 2012. “Making Real Change”

    Updated: 2013-01-14 17:26:16
    Download Elena Panaritis’ power point presentation at the Sustainable, Responsible, Impact Investing Conference, October 2012.  ”Making Real Change:  A Powerful Formula for Prosperity Through the Eyes of a Triple Bottom Line Social Entrepreneur” sriconference.com/2012/presentations/B11Panaritis.ppt… more    

  • The near-term U.S. fiscal situation

    Updated: 2013-01-13 21:40:45
    : . Econbrowser Analysis of current economic conditions and policy Guest Contribution : Rewriting UK GDP history the chain-linked way Main January 13, 2013 The near-term U.S . fiscal situation Here I briefly survey some recent . developments Forbes had this graphic of the consequences of the recent fiscal-cliff deal named by its Congressional sponsors the American Taxpayer Relief Act , or ATRA for various income quintiles . The left bars show how much your after-tax cash income would have gone down in percentage points as a result of the tax increases had there been no deal , broken down by specific contributing factors . The right bars show how much your after-tax income actually fell as a result of the . deal Source : Forbes Megan McArdle has some concerns about the : outcome Consider

  • Guest Contribution: "Rewriting UK GDP history the chain-linked way"

    Updated: 2013-01-12 00:00:13
    : : , Econbrowser Analysis of current economic conditions and policy Guest Contribution : The Myth of Jobless Recoveries' Main January 11, 2013 Guest Contribution : New values for the UK GDP , are they better Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution by Sam Williamson Research Professor at University of Illinois , Chicago and President of Measuring Worth For the last 62 years the United Kingdom’s real GDP has grown at a rate of 2.43 Per capita real GDP grew at 2.06 from 6,428 in 1948 to 22,410 in 2010. Both of these numbers are measured” in 2009 prices . 2.06 is a growth rate that produces a doubling every 35 years . If the UK can keep it up , by 2045 real GDP per capita will be at 45,000. That was last . year According to new data published by the Office for National Statistics

  • Fed Profits and Treasury Financing, the Good and the Bad

    Updated: 2013-01-11 03:02:55
    We learned today that the Federal Reserves turned over $89 billion of its profits, primarily from interest on its securities portfolio, to the U.S. Treasury during 2012. The amount repatriated in recent years has grown substantially because of the sharp growth in the Fed’s total assets resulting from its purchases of Treasuries and Mortgage Backed [...]

  • Quick Post on Annual Econ Meetings

    Updated: 2013-01-08 00:47:48
    (1) Billboard Project:  Art project by Larry Chait (here), as if capitalists weren’t the only ones with access to billboards. Hat-tip to Sam P.’s Too Much, via Arthur MacE.  The Blurb: In the course of my daily travels I am … Continue reading →

  • Which Is More Important For Monetary Policy: The Growth Of The Fed’s Balance Sheet Or Its Level?

    Updated: 2013-01-07 17:12:19
    In my previous post, I noted that the FOMC has apparently begun to think of its low interest rate policy and its quantitative easing/balance sheet expansion policy as two different things. Their latest minutes suggest sentiment by some members for slowing or ending the announced open market purchases by the end of 2013, or possibly [...]

  • Political Football Over Disaster Relief: Another Argument for Public Banking

    Updated: 2013-01-04 18:24:00
    In a shameless display of putting politics before human needs, Congress began 2013 still scrapping over a $60 billion Hurricane Sandy relief bill fully nine weeks after the disaster hit. And if the Katrina experience is any indication, the bill may not bring adequate relief to struggling and displaced homeowners even when it is finally passed. The [...]

  • Allow Interest Rates To Rise While Keeping Monetary Policy Accommodative

    Updated: 2013-01-04 00:01:09
    The minutes of the December 11-12 FOMC meeting, released today, have emboldened me to come out of the closet with a monetary policy suggestion and the reasoning behind it that I’ve been reluctant to express before lest I be ridiculed as hopelessly naïve. My suggestion is that the FOMC allow interest rates to rise a [...]

  • U.S. Has Been Let Down by Its Leadership

    Updated: 2013-01-03 22:46:00
    The deal reached in Washington on New Year’s day prevented the US economy from falling off the so-called fiscal cliff. However, given the dysfunctional nature of the American political system, it won’t be long before there is another crisis. Two months, in fact. If no action is taken by March 1, $110bn of spending cuts will commence. [...]

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